1.	Last week independent web columnist Jakob Nielsen predicted that we'll be building websites primarily for pre-5.0 browsers until late 2003.
2.	http://www.useit.com/alertbox/990418.html
3.	The message is unmistakeable. The rapid growth in functionality that rose around HTML and HTTP, the web, is over. Now the changes come slowly because the market has become slow at adopting change. There are so many reasons for it, everywhere you look, from any angle, the development of new features has stagnated, the new features that *are* being delivered are boring, there have been serious reliability problems in new versions, and when this happens, the market settles down, people upgrade slowly and carefully. The cost of breaking systems is too high because too much has been invested in working around the bugs in the installed base, each upgrade requires more careful transitions.
4.	I also agree with Nielsen that there's a silver lining to this, web developers can use the slower pace to fill in new content management and serverside features such as searching and navigation directories and easier authoring. But don't miss this, as history teaches us, this kind of stagnation opens the door for a breakthrough, which just as inevitably follows the stagnation. It's a constant stream of flip-flops. Moore's Law keeps driving, and new generations of developers learn about things that were tossed out in the last generational flip.